Ukraine should watch out for Russian retaliation, analyst says

Ukrainian political expert of NGO Maidan of Foreign Affairs Alexander Khara on missile drills near Crimea and Russian threats.

Ukraine's latest missile drills in the southeastern Kherson region stirred up a storm of emotions in Russia.

Moscow lashed out against the exercises, which took place tens of kilometers away from occupied Crimea, saying the rockets endangered the peninsula.The Kremlin apparently went as far as threatening Kyiv with using force.

‘If the missiles pose threat to Russian objects, there will be retaliation strikes to destroy the launch systems', a Russian official letter to Ukraine allegedly said, according to Ukraine media agencies.  

Ukraine decided to play bold and ignored the intimidation from the Kremlin, reporting later the drills were successful. Kyiv said that ‘nobody will tell it what to do', adding that the training was held in accordance with international standards.

Ukrainians see the drills as a necessary way to step up their military capabilities, considering that the country has found itself encircled by Russian influence in Belarus and domination in Crimea, Donbas and Transnistria.  

‘Russia is trying to make a grip over Ukraine, to threaten it by military means and to wage its hybrid war, so it's a natural reaction of Ukrainian military to improve their ability to defend the country and to show the willingness and ability if there is a full-scale invasion'Ukrainian political expert Alexander Khara said.

Although Ukraine reported the drills were over and no Russian attempt to intervene was registered, Kyiv shouldn't relax, Khara says.

Moscow is known for its vengeful policy against states who don't comply with the Kremlin's demands. It caused numerous incidents when Russian planes provoked foreign jets during NATO drills in the Black and Baltic seas.

Couple of days after US President Obama pledged to ‘protect Estonia', Russia kidnapped an Estonian cop in an apparent attempt to belittle the US.

Will the Kremlin try to pull off something similar with Ukraine?

'According to their logic, Putin's logic of the conflict with Ukraine, Kyiv should expect some response. It could be a symmetric answer, Russia might conduct its military drills, for example, in the same area of the Black sea, where they could cut Ukraine's main commercial routes of to the outer world'Khara said.

Other scenarios could turn out to be Russian acts of sabotage in Ukrainian territory, and according to the analyst, Ukraine should watch out for possible escalation in Donbas too. 

Source: Ukraine Today

Experts
Andrii Klymenko

Andrii Klymenko

Chair of the Supervisory Board of the MFA, ​Crimea studies expert, ​Editor-in-chief of the http://www.blackseanews.net/ Publications
Bohdan Yaremenko

Bohdan Yaremenko

MFA founder, foreign policy and security expert Publications
Oleh Belokolos

Oleh Belokolos

Chairman of the Board, foreign policy and security expert Publications
Alexander Khara

Alexander Khara

Foreign policy and security expert, ​Deputy Chair of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies Publications
Oleksii Kuropiatnyk

Oleksii Kuropiatnyk

Foreign policy and security expert Publications
Olga Korbut

Olga Korbut

Temporarily occupied territories studies ​analyst​ Publications
Tatyana Guchakova

Tatyana Guchakova

Temporarily occupied territories studies expert Publications
Yurii Smelyanski

Yurii Smelyanski

Economics and temporarily occupied territories studies expert, Chair of the Executive Board of the ​Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies Publications