Enemy estimation
Russian Federation tries to build on the progress in Southern and South-Eastern parts of Ukraine after having achieved a desire goal of military intervention in Crimea. Tasks on continuation of military aggression will include annexation of territories of Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, Nikolaiv and Odessa regions from Ukraine. Thus Russia would try to cut Ukraine out form sea lines of communication and to create a peculiar “sanitary cordon of security” around it. At the same time Russia would try to put center of Kiev under temporary control by expeditious march (less than 8 hours) by the most mobile forces with the purpose of coercive change of political power. After such demonstration of force withdrawal of troops on administrative boundary between Kiev and Chernigiv regions should be expected. After annexation of Eastern, South-Eastern and Southern territories of Ukraine the further means of destabilization of internal situation in Bukolvina and Volhynia regions would be the provocations of local communities to apply to Poland and Romania for accession of these territories to them. Thus the final attempt to complete isolation of Ukraine would be accomplished.
With the aim to enforce mentioned tasks Russian Federation have deployed 5 groupings of troops and forces which will be ready practically at one time to launch military invasion on Ukrainian territory after establishment of necessary internal conditions by separatists.
Status of Armed Forces of Ukraine and tasks of defense
Current status of Ukrainian Armed Forces is not able to provide guaranteed protection of Ukrainian territories simultaneously on all threatening directions of potential military aggression. Therefore it is necessary to form two ground troops groupings (with scope less than one corps) by means of the most ready units with all necessary forces and facilities of reinforcement and material - technical support on two of the most threatening directions (Kharkiv and Lugansk directions).
The task of such groupings is inflicting the fire defeat on first echelon of enemies at the moment of state border crossing and also defeat on the second echelon in concentration area on Russian territory. Inflicted casualties on the enemy should have irresistible and inadmissible consequences for its forces which would make them refuse from further fulfillment of tasks. Taking into account that the enemy would try first of all to occupy regional administrative centers and to turn them into unassailable fortresses by creation of anti-tank and anti-personnel stop lines.
Blocking of possible approach routs of the enemy through main arterials on Ukrainian territory should be provided by efforts of the National Guard and area defense units (formed from volunteers).Therefore long-term defensive posts should be additionally equipped by means of malfunctioning armored vehicles (but with working armaments) situated in extended storages. We should address a request to NATO considering weakness of national air defense to provide “no-fly zones” over Ukrainian problem regions by means of joint patrolling by Ukraine’s and NATO’s air forces. Therewith the protection of Ukrainian Black Sea and Azov Sea coast should be provided by means of NATO’s aircrafts naval blockade and penetration of forces from occupied territories of Crimea and Transdniestria should also be prevented. The conduction of aerial reconnaissance should be provided by 24-hour patrolling of NATO AWACS aircrafts and by the means of receiving information from satellites of certain countries of Allience.
At the beginning of armed aggression the infliction of blows on military objectives in deep of enemy’s territory and also on control objects of its administrative centers (first of all – in Moscow and Saint Petersburg) should be provided by Special Operations forces and previously sent reconnaissance and sabotage groups. It is necessary to remove from power political authorities of Russia if possible – first of all President and Prime-Minister.
At the same time with development of military operation on mainland of Ukraine the occupation of important administrative centers in Crimea should be started by high mobility assault force in cooperation with Special Operations forces of NATO.
Self-appointed authorities of Crimea should be caught and forced to disown all agreements with Russian Federation.
